Posterior Predictive Checks
Model Calibration \(\rightarrow\) Posterior Predictive Checks
Coverage Probabilities
Calculated as the proportion of model prediction intervals (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) which contain the reported point estimate
| Indicator | Training Set (1990-2015) | Testing Set (2016-2020) |
|---|---|---|
| Fertility Indicators | 78.2% | 90.0% |
| Total fertility rate (TFR) (age 15-49) | 78.0% | 92.0% |
| Contraceptive prevalence (age 15-49) | 87.2% | 66.7% |
| Twinning rate | 70.1% | NA |
| Process Indicators | 70.6% | 69.3% |
| Anemia prevalence (by severity) | 50.9% | 58.3% |
| Stillbirth rate | 68.1% | NA |
| Facility delivery % | 86.0% | 61.2% |
| C-section rate | 81.4% | 87.0% |
| Spontaneous/operative vaginal delivery % | 25.0% | NA |
| Mortality Indicators | 96.0% | 96.0% |
| Maternal deaths (total) (CRVS data) | 92.3% | 96.6% |
| Abortive deaths (CRVS data) | 96.0% | 100% |
| PE/E deaths (CRVS data) | 98.9% | 100% |
| PPH (CRVS data) | 99.7% | 100% |
| Sepsis deaths (CRVS data) | 99.2% | 100% |
| OL deaths (CRVS data) | 98.9% | 100% |
| Other direct deaths (CRVS data) | 90.0% | 81.0% |
| Late maternal deaths (CRVS data) | 99.0% | 96.6% |
| Indirect maternal deaths (CRVS data) | 94.0% | 89.7% |
| Pregnancy-related mortality ratio | 84.7% | NA |
| Miscellaneous (maternal deaths, maternal mortality ratio, pregnancy-related mortality ratio) | 87.5% | 100.0% |
| OVERALL | 88.5% | 91.4% |
Mean Absolute Error
| Indicator | Training Set (1990-2015) | Testing Set (2016-2020) |
|---|---|---|
| Fertility Indicators | ||
| Total fertility rate (TFR) (age 15-49) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| Contraceptive prevalence (age 15-49) | 2.9 | 6.5 |
| Twinning rate | 3.3 | NA |
| Process Indicators | ||
| Anemia prevalence (by severity) | 5.0 | 7.7 |
| Stillbirth rate | 2.0 | NA |
| Facility delivery % | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| C-section rate | 1.6 | 3.1 |
| Spontaneous/operative vaginal delivery % | 4.2 | NA |
| Mortality Indicators | ||
| Maternal deaths (total) (CRVS data) | 44.0 | 47.5 |
| Abortive deaths (CRVS data) | 7.6 | 5.3 |
| PE/E deaths (CRVS data) | 14.8 | 15.4 |
| PPH deaths (CRVS data) | 11.5 | 9.5 |
| Sepsis deaths (CRVS data) | 6.0 | 2.9 |
| OL deaths (CRVS data) | 7.7 | 4.3 |
| Other direct deaths (CRVS data) | 12.4 | 16.7 |
| Late maternal deaths (CRVS data) | 5.6 | 13.6 |
| Indirect maternal deaths (CRVS data) | 19.6 | 16.2 |
| Pregnancy-related mortality ratio | 81.1 | NA |
| Miscellaneous (maternal deaths, maternal mortality ratio, pregnancy-related mortality ratio) | 46.7 | 18.3 |
Mean Error Reported values are mean (SE)
| Indicator | Training Set (1990-2015) | Testing Set (2016-2020) |
|---|---|---|
| Fertility Indicators | ||
| Total fertility rate (TFR) (age 15-49) | 0.018 (0.005) | -0.055 (0.017) |
| Contraceptive prevalence (age 15-49) | -0.9 (0.3) | -5.3 (1.5) |
| Twinning rate | -1.4 (0.4) | NA |
| Process Indicators | ||
| Anemia prevalence (by severity) | 2.9 (0.4) | 4.6 (1.4) |
| Stillbirth rate | 1.0 (0.1) | NA |
| Facility delivery % | -0.2 (0.3) | 1.1 (0.8) |
| C-section rate | 0.1 (0.1) | 1.2 (0.5) |
| Spontaneous/operative vaginal delivery % | -1.4 (0.8) | NA |
| Mortality Indicators | ||
| Maternal deaths (total) (CRVS data) | -11.1 (1.8) | 2.6 (8.9) |
| Abortive deaths (CRVS data) | 2.0 (0.4) | -2.7 (0.9) |
| PE/E deaths (CRVS data) | -4.4 (0.9) | -12.3 (3.2) |
| PPH deaths (CRVS data) | 1.4 (0.7) | -5.7 (1.8) |
| Sepsis deaths (CRVS data) | -1.9 (0.5) | -0.6 (0.5) |
| OL deaths (CRVS data) | -7.1 (0.7) | -4.1 (0.9) |
| Other direct deaths (CRVS data) | 9.3 (1.0) | 15.7 (5.3) |
| Late maternal deaths (CRVS data) | -2.7 (0.4) | 7.0 (3.1) |
| Indirect maternal deaths (CRVS data) | 1.7 (1.4) | 6.0 (3.8) |
| Pregnancy-related mortality ratio | 10.7 (9.5) | NA |
| Miscellaneous (maternal deaths, maternal mortality ratio, pregnancy-related mortality ratio) | 18.3 (9.9) | 18.3 (4.6) |
Coverage Probabilities by Country Grouping
Here we summarize coverage probabilities (and number of targets) by indicator type and country group
| Group | Fertility: Train | Fertility: Test | Process: Train | Process: Test | Mortality: Train | Mortality: Test | Overall: Train | Overall: Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | 78.2% (n=6975) | 90.0% (n=270) | 70.6% (n=1760) | 69.3% (n=202) | 96.0% (n=13760) | 96.0% (n=1053) | 88.5% (n=22495) | 91.4% (n=1525) |
| Low income | 59.4% (n=1315) | 80.0% (n=35) | 67.2% (n=393) | 69.2% (n=65) | 91.7% (n=168) | 100% (n=9) | 63.9% (n=1876) | 75.2% (n=109) |
| LM income | 77.5% (n=1753) | 90.9% (n=44) | 66.6% (n=428) | 81.4% (n=43) | 97.2% (n=1636) | 94.5% (n=128) | 84.8% (n=3817) | 91.2% (n=215) |
| UM income | 77.6% (n=2097) | 91.2% (n=80) | 68.7% (n=470) | 76.4% (n=55) | 97.1% (n=4581) | 95.9% (n=367) | 89.5% (n=7148) | 93.0% (n=502) |
| High income | 93.1% (n=1810) | 91.9% (n=111) | 79.1% (n=469) | 46.2% (n=39) | 95.2% (n=7375) | 96.4% (n=549) | 94.0% (n=9654) | 92.8% (n=699) |
| Africa | 73.0% (n=1651) | 83.3% (n=48) | 66.8% (n=588) | 68.7% (n=67) | 96.4% (n=806) | 90.3% (n=31) | 78.0% (n=3045) | 78.1% (n=146) |
| Asia | 69.7% (n=2742) | 90.4% (n=83) | 66.6% (n=380) | 81.5% (n=65) | 96.3% (n=2699) | 95.5% (n=265) | 81.8% (n=5821) | 92.3% (n=413) |
| Europe | 95.8% (n=1224) | 94.3% (n=88) | 86.6% (n=403) | 46.7% (n=30) | 95.8% (n=4979) | 98.4% (n=370) | 95.2% (n=6606) | 94.5% (n=488) |
| Latin America | 85.7% (n=1142) | 90.2% (n=41) | 66.1% (n=336) | 74.2% (n=31) | 96.6% (n=4504) | 95.9% (n=315) | 92.8% (n=5982) | 93.5% (n=387) |
| North America | 95.9% (n=49) | 0% (n=2) | 15.4% (n=13) | 0% (n=2) | 89.1% (n=331) | 88.9% (n=36) | 87.5% (n=393) | 80.0% (n=40) |
| Oceania | 82.6% (n=167) | 100% (n=8) | 60.0% (n=40) | 57.1% (n=7) | 95.2% (n=441) | 88.9% (n=36) | 89.8% (n=648) | 86.3% (n=51) |
GMatH (Global Maternal Health) Model - Last updated: 13 December 2023
© Copyright 2020-2023 Zachary J. Ward
zward@hsph.harvard.edu